Bitcoin has risen 1.3% over the past 24 hours to around $77,400 on Sept. 18, recovering from an intraday low near $76,000 as selling pressure eased following the Federal Reserve’s latest rate decision.

CoinGecko data showed BTC (BTC) trading near $77,383 at the time of writing, close to its 24-hour high of $77,420. 

The cryptocurrency has gained roughly 0.6% over the past seven days and 20% over the past 30 days.

The rebound began after Bitcoin survived another test of the $75,000 to $76,000 region following the Federal Reserve’s Sept. 16 meeting. 

Policymakers raised the benchmark rate by 25 basis points to 3.75% to 4.00%, an increase that markets had widely expected before the decision.

Fed projections kept another rate increase this year on the table, but the removal of uncertainty around the September decision helped selling pressure ease. 

BTC subsequently reclaimed $76,000 before pushing through $77,000 on Sept. 18.

Conditions outside crypto have become less hostile to the recovery. US stock rebounded after Wednesday’s selloff, led partly by technology shares, while oil prices eased as concerns over Middle East supply disruptions faded. 

The US 10 year Treasury yield, which had climbed above 5%, subsequently slipped back below that level.

Leverage has cooled at the same time. Bybit Bitcoin open interest stood near $2.12 billion early on Sept. 18, down 0.63% between daily snapshots, while funding rates eased. 

With fewer leveraged positions in the market, BTC has faced less risk of the cascading long liquidations that accelerated its earlier fall towards $75,000.

Sentiment has improved with the price recovery. Bitcoin’s Fear and Greed reading increased from 50 to 56 as BTC moved back above $76,000.

The next obstacle sits close to the current price. Binance’s 24-hour BTC/USDT liquidation heatmap shows a dense concentration of liquidation liquidity around $77,500 to $77,700, followed by more positions around $78,000. 

Bitcoin 24-hour liquidation heatmap. Source: TradingView.

A move through those levels could force leveraged short positions to close, potentially adding buying pressure as BTC approaches $78,000.

A much larger liquidation concentration sits below price between roughly $75,300 and $75,700. BTC would first have to lose the $76,000 region to bring that cluster back into focus.

Spot Bitcoin ETFs, however, do not explain the rebound. US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $295.98 million in net outflows on Sept. 16 after $450.33 million left the funds a day earlier, bringing withdrawals across the two sessions to $746.31 million.

BTC’s recovery despite those redemptions leaves the post Fed improvement in risk sentiment, easing leverage and the defence of the $75,000 to $76,000 region as the main factors behind the latest move.

BTC price analysis

Bitcoin’s daily chart shows price back above its 9-day simple moving average after recovering from this week’s decline. BTC is trading around $77,400, while the 9-day SMA sits near $76,837.

BTC/USD 1-day price chart. Source: TradingView.

Holding above the moving average would keep the $77,500 to $77,700 area as the first resistance zone. 

A daily move through that range could expose $78,000, followed by the recent price area around $80,000. 

The early September highs near $81,000 to $82,000 would become the next chart-based target if BTC establishes itself above $80,000.

Buying pressure has not recovered as quickly as price. The daily Chaikin Oscillator remains below zero at around minus 880 after falling sharply from positive territory earlier this month. 

The negative reading shows that short term accumulation and distribution momentum remains weaker even as BTC trades above its 9 day SMA.

A move in the Chaikin Oscillator back towards zero alongside a break above $78,000 would give the rebound stronger confirmation. 

If the oscillator remains negative and BTC falls back below the 9 day SMA at $76,837, $76,000 becomes the next price level to watch. 

A break below it could take BTC towards the liquidation concentration between $75,300 and $75,700.

On the 4-hour chart, the Directional Movement Index has ADX at roughly 23.71, with +DI at 17.65 and −DI at 15.84.

+DI sitting slightly above −DI gives buyers a small directional advantage, but the narrow gap between the two lines and an ADX below 25 show that the current move has yet to develop into a strong directional trend.

BTC/USD 4-hour price chart. Source: TradingView.

A widening gap between +DI and −DI with ADX moving above 25 would support a push through $77,700 towards $78,000. 

If −DI crosses back above +DI while price loses $76,800, the 4-hour structure would instead leave $76,000 and then $75,300 to $75,700 exposed.

4-hour standard deviation has fallen to around $567 after rising towards $1,000 during the recent decline. 

The drop shows that price dispersion has contracted as BTC stabilised, following much larger volatility during previous moves this month.

A rise in standard deviation accompanying a break above $77,700 would indicate volatility is expanding with price and could open a move towards $78,000 and $80,000. 

If volatility expands while BTC falls below $76,800, the downside levels remain $76,000, followed by the large liquidation cluster around $75,300 to $75,700.

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