Ethereum has dropped towards $2,310 on Thursday after briefly rallying towards $2,350 following the Federal Reserve maintaining its benchmark interest rate range at 3.75%–4.00%.

The Federal Open Market Committee voted 10–2 to hold rates steady following September’s 25-basis-point increase. 

Officials described economic activity as growing at a strong pace despite heightened geopolitical uncertainty, while emphasizing that inflation remains elevated.

The committee said incoming data would guide its assessment of the policy needed to return inflation to its 2% target.

ETH initially gained around 1% following the announcement, although the decision was widely anticipated. However, it has lost its gains and is now down 2.1% in the last 24 hours. 

CME FedWatch figures showed markets had assigned a probability above 90% to unchanged rates.

Attention now turns to Thursday’s Personal Consumption Expenditures inflation report, which could influence expectations for the Fed’s next move.

Negative Coinbase premium signals cautious US demand

The bearish performance comes as CryptoQuant data suggests demand from US-based investors remains subdued.

Ethereum’s Coinbase Premium Index fell to -0.181 on Monday, its lowest reading since February, before recovering slightly to -0.142 on Tuesday.

The metric compares ETH prices on Coinbase and Binance. Negative readings indicate that ETH trades at a discount on Coinbase, which can suggest relatively stronger selling pressure or weaker buying demand on that venue.

The index has remained below zero since early September, underscoring the challenge facing a sustained recovery.

US spot Ethereum ETFs registered $60.2 million in net outflows on Tuesday, followed by another $21.41 million on Wednesday, according to SoSoValue.

That marked a third consecutive session of withdrawals, adding to an already substantial monthly total. Continued redemptions could put October on track to become the products’ largest outflow month since their July 2024 launch.

The persistent withdrawals contrast with ETH’s latest price rebound and indicate that demand through ETF products has yet to strengthen.

Ethereum drops below the 200-day EMA

The ETH/USD daily chart remains bearish as it has dropped below its 200-day Exponential Moving Average near $2,316. At press time, ETH is trading at $2,309 per coin. 

The bearish performance comes after Ethereum failed to surge past the 100-day EMA at $2,362 on Wednesday.

However, a sustained move above the 200-day and 100-day EMAs in the near term would improve the short-term outlook and bring $2,411 into focus.

Further resistance sits at the 20-day EMA near $2,424 and the 50-day EMA around $2,450. Clearing that cluster would strengthen the case for an advance toward $2,548.

On the downside, the first major significant support sits at $2,287, the previous week’s low. Below it, the next levels identified in the analysis are $2,256, $2,204 and $2,107.

The Relative Strength Index recovered to 35, while the Stochastic Oscillator rose to 33 after reaching oversold territory.

The bearish readings suggest selling pressure has increased, as the RSI remains below the neutral 50 level. 

CoinGlass data showed $81.5 million in ETH liquidations over the last 24 hours, including $41 million in short positions. The concentration of short liquidations is consistent with pressure on bearish traders during the rebound.

For buyers, holding $2,287 and overcoming the $2,355–$2,362 resistance zone remain the immediate tests.

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