Oil prices fell more than 2% on Friday after the US granted a waiver for sanctioned Russian crude and an Indian tanker sailed out of the Strait of Hormuz.

However, both benchmarks, Brent and West Texas Intermediate crude oil, were on course for weekly gains due to the ongoing conflict in the Middle East.

On the other hand, gold prices were headed for their second straight weekly loss as high oil prices reduced rate cut bets and a stronger dollar weighed on sentiment.

Elsewhere, silver on COMEX also dipped nearly 1% on Friday.

Meanwhile, aluminium prices were in the red after the metal had touched a multi-year high in the previous session.

Oil falls

Despite the broader persistence of supply disruptions stemming from the Middle East conflict, oil prices fell on Friday.

This dip occurred as an Indian tanker exited the Strait of Hormuz and the US introduced measures aimed at alleviating supply concerns.

Nonetheless, oil prices were still set to register weekly gains.

According to media reports on Friday, an oil tanker flying the Indian flag had departed the area east of the Strait of Hormuz, transporting gasoline destined for Africa.

“Some oil is coming through the strait, but it does not mean it will reopen,” Tamas Varga, an ​oil analyst at brokerage PVM, said. “This dip should be viewed as short-lived.”

In a move to stabilize global energy markets, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced a 30-day US license allowing countries to purchase Russian oil and petroleum products currently stranded at sea.

This decision addresses the disruption caused by the US-Israeli conflict with Iran.

According to Russia’s presidential envoy Kirill Dmitriev, this temporary license impacts an estimated 100 million barrels of Russian crude, which is nearly equivalent to one day of the world’s total oil output.

A day before the announcement on Russian oil, the US Energy Department stated that Washington would release 172 million barrels of oil from its Strategic Petroleum Reserve.

This measure was intended to help curb the skyrocketing oil prices.

Recent market gains were barely affected, even after US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced a one-month lifting of sanctions on Russian tankers currently at sea.

“The main issue is that the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively blocked to all shipping, thereby cutting off around 20% of the world’s energy supply,” said David Morrison, senior market analyst at Trade Nation.

At the time of writing, the price of WTI crude was $93.41 per barrel, down 2.4%, while Brent was at $98.86 per barrel, down 1.5% from the previous close.

Gold heads for weekly loss

Gold prices have fallen back below the $5,100 per ounce mark, a decline attributed to the ongoing, unresolved conflict in Iran.

Though the gold contract on COMEX was last at $5,114.41 per ounce, it had touched a session’s low of $5,066.51 an ounce earlier in the day.

Gold was heading for a second consecutive weekly decline as several factors, including surging oil prices, reduced expectations for interest rate cuts, prompting investors to cover margin calls.

Additionally, the strengthening dollar and rising US yields further weighed on the metal.

Global energy supply and risk asset concerns were heightened after Iran vowed to close the Strait of Hormuz.

The dollar climbed to a three-month peak, and 10-year US Treasury yields reached a near six-week high.

Investors are focused on two key events: the upcoming release of the delayed January Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data on Friday, and the Federal Reserve’s two-day meeting next week.

Despite recent inflation data suggesting price growth is controlled, the full effect of the spike in crude prices has not yet been realised.

Traders largely anticipate the Fed will hold interest rates steady next week, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch tool.

The US market, for instance, is not fully anticipating even a 25 basis point interest rate cut by the Fed by the close of this year, a significant shift from late February when the market was still factoring in 2½ such steps, according to Thu Lan Nguyen, head of FX and commodity research at Commerzbank AG.

“This is the main reason why the price of gold has come under pressure.”

Aluminium falls from highs

The base metals index remains largely affected by the geopolitical uncertainty in the Middle East.

The aluminum market continues to feel the effects of supply concerns stemming from the Iran conflict.

This week, requests for aluminum withdrawal from LME warehouses surged to their highest level since spring 2024.

The majority of these requests targeted warehouses in Malaysia, indicating a particularly tight supply situation within the Asian market, Nguyen said.

Reports also suggested that a major mining company has substantially raised the premiums for aluminum purchasers in Japan, marking the highest level in over a decade.

“However, since China is by far the world’s largest aluminum producer, producers there could increase their exports in the short term — not least because of the more attractive prices — and potentially provide relief,” Nguyen said.

However, the three-month aluminium contract on the London Metal Exchange fell due to a stronger dollar.

A stronger dollar makes commodities priced in the greenback more expensive for overseas buyers, thereby limiting demand.

At the time of writing, the aluminium contract on LME was at $3,484.45 per ton, down 1%. The copper contract was down 0.5% at $12,920 per ton.

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