What explains the curious lack of economic progress in the EU over the past 16 years?
In 2008, the economies of the European Union and the United States were roughly equal in size in terms of GDP. Fast forward through a global financial crisis and pandemic and the US economy has nearly doubled while Europe’s has barely grown at all. How can we explain this?
One answer is to point out the glaring problem with comparing EU GDP in 2008 to EU GDP in 2023: Brexit. Recall that GDP is defined as the value of all the production that takes place within an economy. In 2016, the EU lost its second largest economy and with it, a significant portion of its overall GDP. Still, with a GDP of between $2.5 and 3 trillion, Britain’s exit from the EU cannot, by itself, explain the nearly $10 trillion gap in GDP.
First, we must remind ourselves that wealth does not happen automatically, bestowed from above as if it were manna from heaven. It has to be created through the conscious and deliberate efforts of workers, business leaders, and entrepreneurs. Notice one group of people missing from this list: policymakers. Despite their claims to the contrary, policymakers cannot create wealth. Indeed, they cannot do so. However, their role in wealth-creation cannot be understated, for they wield the simultaneous power to foster growth and to inhibit it.
Adam Smith gave us the blueprint for growth all the way back in 1776. He writes, “Little else is requisite to carry a state to the highest degree of opulence from the lowest barbarism, but peace, easy taxes, and a tolerable administration of justice; all the rest being brought about by the natural course of things.”
Comparing the US and the EU on these dimensions reveals differences.
Peace
To classify the current US climate as “peaceful” seems disingenuous, especially considering recent attacks, murders, and the bellicose election cycle. Indeed, “reducing crime” is a growing concern for all Americans across the entire political spectrum. Interestingly, crime rates have fallen precipitously in the last several decades. Despite the growing concerns, in a very real sense, Americans have never been safer in their homes and their communities.
Internationally, the US is also much more peacefully engaged than it has been in decades. The US is not currently engaged in any large-scale, direct combat roles in any international conflicts. To the extent that the US is involved (in Ukraine or the Israel-Hamas War), it is through providing political backing, economic aid, military intelligence, and diplomatic support. In other words, the US is engaged in supportive activities, not combative.
Looking at the EU, we see similar results. Crime rates, in general, have mostly fallen throughout the Union, with some cross-country variation. Though, it should be noted that rates of some crimes have been rising in recent years in the EU and some have fallen only slightly and nowhere near the levels to which they have fallen in the US.
Advantage: United States
Easy Taxes
“Easy taxes” could be interpreted many ways. The most obvious interpretation would be the overall tax rate. Because the EU is made up of so many different countries, each of which has their own constellation of policies, direct comparisons can be difficult to make. Looking at top marginal income tax rates, the US comes in at roughly 42.3 percent. Countries in the EU range from 55.9 percent (Denmark) to 10 percent in Romania and Bulgaria, with the average being 42.8 percent. On this dimension, taxes seem to be roughly similar in terms of ease.
One could also consider taxes “easy” if the compliance costs are relatively low and do not disproportionately benefit political cronies or large corporations. Here, both countries largely fail. The US Chamber of Commerce reported in 2024 that 73 percent of small businesses spent either “a great deal” or “a fair amount” of time on issues related to tax compliance. The European Parliament itself, in a 2023 report (PDF), admits as much, saying, “smaller enterprises are burdened with relatively larger compliance costs. Such additional burden does not appear to stem from special allowances for small firms, rather from the general design of a tax system.” Smaller businesses typically do not have access to a dedicated, in-house team of tax experts who are able to handle the administrative and compliance burdens of a tax system.
Finally, we could also consider taxes to be “easy” if they are applied in a way that is equitable. In this context, “equitable” means that people or companies in similar financial or economic situations pay the same amount of taxes. In the US, it is no secret that many companies enjoy special tax abatements and exemptions and that many will choose to incorporate in Delaware for certain tax and business advantages. But the same is true of countries in the EU, especially if we consider that companies can locate their headquarters in a particularly tax-advantaged country and that workers can come from neighboring countries with relative ease. Since tax rates, exemptions, and interpretations of statute vary by country in the EU, it can easily be the case that clever companies can find (unintended or not) loopholes allowing them to save on their tax bill.
Advantage: United States (but only slightly)
A Tolerable Administration of Justice
Whenever even just two people live in close proximity, conflict will occur. This conflict need not necessarily be violent; it could be a simple disagreement between parties requiring outside adjudication. Customers and merchants can disagree on the terms of a warranty, companies can believe that they have complied with various laws and regulations where the public might disagree, or neighbors might disagree on noise levels that are permissible at certain hours of the night.
What is necessary, then, is some means of resolving conflicts in a way that is understood to be fair and impartial to both parties. This conflict resolution mechanism must also be easily accessible so that when disputes happen, a resolution can be reached quickly and at (relatively) low cost. In most countries, this service is performed by courts and other mediation services.
In the US, The National Center for State Courts provides analyses of public opinions of the court system. In their 2023 report, they find that, broadly speaking, the public trusts the court system, finds it to be generally accessible, but that there is growing concern that the court system has become politicized.
For the EU case, the European Commission publishes an EU Justice Scoreboard report, which analyzes the court system on the bases of “efficiency, quality, and independence.” While they find evidence of general improvements being made within the Union, they also acknowledge that much work remains and that there is tremendous cross-country variation in the quality of the judiciary.
We can also get a sense of the overall administration of justice by looking at The Fraser Institute’s Economic Freedom of the World Index, specifically the legal system score by country over the last twenty years. While both the US and the EU score highly in absolute terms, of the twenty-seven countries in the EU, only seven (Austria, Denmark, Finland, Germany, Netherlands, Luxemburg, and Sweden) score higher than the US and only just barely. The other twenty countries are all significantly lower than the US scores.
This matters because having reliable, affordable, and quick access to an impartial court system allows for conflicts to be resolved and for both parties to move forward with their lives — and businesses.
Advantage: United States
Conclusion
Overall, the United States has greater peace, both domestically and internationally, easier taxes, and a more tolerable administration of justice than the European Union. The disparate economic growth between the two is understandable in those terms.
What does remain a mystery, though, is the magnitude of the disparity. If we include the UK’s GDP into the EU’s GDP, there would still be a $7 trillion gap. And while some may point out that Brexit caused reduced economic growth for the entire European region, it is hard to imagine anyone seriously arguing that voting against Brexit would have nearly doubled every single EU member’s GDP. Much remains to be examined.
Still, Adam Smith remains correct: peace, easy taxes, and a tolerable administration of justice are vital for economic progress. With these securely in place, the rest, as he says, will follow and indeed it has.